Who is Peak Oil Aware?

[aherrij]

Haven't posted in awhile, just wanted to contribute to one of my fav sites by sharing another favorite site.

 

Anyone here also peak oil aware? Only one good hit via search, and that thread was closed about a month ago.

 

I have an entire folder of energy bookmarks in firefox, but my favorite site to read is

 

http://www.theoildrum.com

 

I expect some people here are (for some reason, I suspect H_G and Momma) , but there's a lot of reading to do if you want to immerse yourself in a scary, scary, scenario.

 

That's all, won't be back til Sunday to contribute further, though.

 

EDIT: Some facts: Oil prices are probably never going back down, our electrical infrastructure is old and practically crumbling, our economy is running on an unsustainable borrowing scheme, our government's current account balance is SCARY (some changes in international monetary policy - i.e. oil trading in Euros, would kill the dollar's value), etc.

 

Scenario: Middle class wages are actually decreasing due to inflation occurring faster than pay increases - thats a fact. Home values have started to slip in parts of the country, that's a fact. Well, people start defaulting on home-equity loans as gas prices and interest rates pinch wallets . So, loans default, economy tumbles (economy no longer financed by consumer debt spending), gov't. tax receipts tumble, gov't. defaults on loan payments to other countries. Dollar plunges. We cannot afford to buy imported goods. People starve. All hell breaks loose. Could happen.

 

Just remember, about one year ago, we were witnessing how VERY thin the fabric of society is - think Katrina all over the U.S.

[Brother Esau]

Well I have allot to say about stuff like this, but it seems as my views are not well taken at all as much as I would like to ad my knowledge of such things. I will end up turning it into world war 3 because people dont like my realistic view points and ignorance is Bliss so I have nothing further to add unless you PM me and I will proceed in blowing you're mind because I know an incredible amount when it come to ecology and the Capatalistic fascist regime.

[aherrij]

Bring on your PO opinions brother. I'll be on for a little while yet, LMK what your thoughts are.

[Evil_inc]

From the look of it you cant properly express your opinion without . others off. You might want to work on that.

[aherrij]

From the look of it you cant properly express your opinion without . others off. You might want to work on that.

 

I think that's ^^ exactly what Brother was worried about. How about you edit your post and drop some thoughts on Peak Oil. Just a thought.

 

No one is PO'ed. Join the convo.

[Evil_inc]

I think that the price of oil is being artificaly raised by using every excuse to jack up prices (hurricanes, war, etc...) more than is needed. Oil companies are experiencing record profits and the only a few people being hurt by this are gas station owners (they only make a few cents on the gallon), transporters (truck drivers, cab drivers, and the like), and the general consumer.

[TheFlowerKing]

My thoughts before I go away for the weekend..

Oil prices will never drop because they aer being controlled by those who own the oil business. Creep prices up under the pretence that arab oil is the way to go and once that has been exploited (if it ever "does" run out, there's a theory on oil being an organic form, or a by-product of one, and hence replinishes over time) then open up the oil fields in the countries which you actually own.

Ever wonder why Britain was so eager to keep the Falklands when they were invaded? Or why East Timor was so important when they wanted freedom?

There are things larger than all of us behind global thinking, we must merely survive in the world that is created and mankind has a remarkable track history of adaptation in order to survive.

Oil or no oil, I think we'll work out fine..

[Angry_Games]

/me puts on tinfoil hat and waits for people to comment!

 

/me hands ExRoadie his tinfoil hat also

[red930]

Full Disclosure. I own shares of ExxonMobile and Royal Dutch Petroleum which is one reason I have done my research.

 

"Peak Oil" has been a buzz word for environmentalist and leftists in general since the late 1970's.

 

When Hubbert first posited the "peak oil" hypothesis in 1974, he and his disciples determined that we would reach the peak in 1989 based upon observed trends. When that didn't happen they revised it to 1995 then 1999, 2001, 2005, 2010, 2007, 2005, 2006 and currently 2010, again.

 

Some have even gone on record to say that "peak oil" was reached in 1997 and refuse to revise their numbers even in the face of overwhelming evidence that we are now producing more oil from more reserves than at any other time.

 

As you can see there's been some elasticity in the formula to calculate "peak oil".

 

By definition we will one day reach a point where we are consuming more oil than can be pulled from the ground. Based upon current trends that's not likely to happen for some time.

 

In the 1970's only about 20% of the oil underground ever made it to the surface. Currently, we're pulling over 35% of the oil in a given field to the surface.

 

Once abandoned fields are being revived using new technology to bring more oil to the surface than once thought possible. Wells that delivered 20 barrels an hour are now producing 40 barrels an hour at lower costs even when adjusted for inflation.

 

Let's not forget that besides crude oil, natural gas production is at an all time high. While natural gas was once burned off as a waste product to oil production, it's now a viable commodity causing once dormant fields to be reopened for gas production.

 

The bigger question than "peak oil" is the price.

 

How much are we willing to pay for a barrel of oil?

 

When you think about it, solar power and wind power haven't caught on because they cost more per kilowatt hour than burning fossil fuel. As oil approaches $100.00USD a barrel, these other sources of energy become much more attractive.

 

Many other sources of energy become very cost effective when oil reaches $32.00USD a barrel which is roughly half the current cost per barrel.

 

If you don't think the oil producing countries aren't aware of this you're sadly mistaken. They will do everything in their power to ensure that oil prices stay in the "golden range" of $60 to $80 per barrel for many years to come.

 

With oil in this "golden range" consumption will drop yet they will still be making more per barrel.

 

Just remember that oil prices are set based upon supply and demand with political stability thrown in for good measure. If we weren't using so much oil and people weren't worried about a Persian with nuclear missiles, the price would would be much lower.

 

BTW Don't hammer the oil companies for making a profit now when you didn't care that they were barely making a profit four years ago when oil was selling for $18 a barrel. Let them take the profits and build new refineries and explore for new oil reserves, both things that take enormous sums of money. Take the time to research the profits for any oil company and you will see just how little return they got for their investment.

 

The price of a gallon of gas is just now approaching what it should be based upon the rate of inflation compared to other products. We had a good run with cheap oil and refined gas.

[watsonte]

I spent the better part of two weeks during my Differential Equations course last year determining the Oil Peak....its really all just a bunch of bull in my opinion...

 

I dont think we will be using oil as out main fuel source by the time we run out....and if we do...I guess I will have to invest in a nice bike...and well get into really good shape

[Guest Neezer]

I think that the price of oil is being artificaly raised by using every excuse to jack up prices (hurricanes, war, etc...) more than is needed. Oil companies are experiencing record profits and the only a few people being hurt by this are gas station owners (they only make a few cents on the gallon), transporters (truck drivers, cab drivers, and the like), and the general consumer.

 

Oil companies only make a few cents on the gallon too.

[poopshotgun]

Peak Oil is a myth. We'll keep drilling deeper and finding new ways to drill and when it becomes too costly to drill, someone will unveil another source of cheap energy that can be easily controlled.

 

One of the reasons oil and car companies snap up alternative technologies like a rabid dingo on steroids is because it would hurt their monopoly on energy. Further, alternative energy can't readily be taxed, which produces hairbrained ideas like taxing the miles you drive per year (. you not, actual proposal here in Oregon). This leads into government being good for nothing but perpetuating itself, but that's a discussion for another time.

 

I don't think there's a conspiracy out there, I think it all boils down to money and the people who have it and their desire for more money. Ex Roadie has it right.