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Fogel

Next (8th) Gen Console Predictions

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Ok I was originally going to put this in the Xbox 720 thread but realized it could also go in the PS4/Orbis thread. Then I figured no one here is really interested in the Wii u ...so having a thread dedicated to the Wii U would probably just fall off Page 1 before the day is up. Either way, here is a thread where we can discuss the rumors of all 3 systems and make our predictions on who we think will win (for the 2-3 ppl here that care :P) the most core gamers and/or win the majority of the market. Currently I would say the Wii won the market share while Sony and Microsoft sort of tied for getting the most core gamers. Neither one really pulled ahead of the other enough to claim dominance. You would have to start arguing sales figures to figure out who technically won the battle.

 

So let's break it out in order of appearance... according to rumors:

 

 

NINTENDO WII U

 

REL: Holiday 2012

CPU: IBM Multi-core 45nm with eDRAM cache

GPU: Radeon R700 ...pretty much an HD4000 series

 

Media: Proprietary (Blu-Ray like) 25GB HD Media

Storage: 8GB Flash Memory

Display: 1080p

 

PRICE = $300 and up

 

Backwards Compatibility: YES (games and hardware)

Always Online Requirement: NO

Supports Rental Games: YES

Supports Used Games: YES

 

SELLINGS POINTS

  1. Wii U tablet gaming ...links tablet to console
  2. Allows gamer to game on tablet even with display on TV turned off (i.e. Dad can kick son off the TV and son can still play his game)
  3. Use tablet to view TV screen elements in different manner
  4. Nintendo Network (will it be a fully featured online gaming service???)

 

IMMEDIATE DOWNSIDES

  1. Outdated hardware ...possibly even more underpowered than the Wii was?
  2. 8GB storage limitation
  3. Only 1 Wii U tablet controller per system
  4. Wii U tablet is only single touch interface instead of multi-touch like most current devices

REFERENCES

 

 

SONY PS4 / ORBIS

 

REL: Holiday 2013

CPU: AMD A8-3850 APU

GPU: 1x HD 7670

 

Media: Blu-Ray

Storage: ???

Display: 4096x2160

 

Backwards Compatibility: NO

Always Online Requirement: YES

Supports Rental Games: Limited??? (need more details)

Supports Used Games: Limited (need more details)

 

SELLINGS POINTS

  1. Link the PS Vita to Orbis for enhanced gameplay
  2. Superior display resolution
  3. Reports of early Third Party support is good

 

IMMEDIATE DOWNSIDES

  1. Rental game support will probably be severly impacted - HUGE downside for the console gaming market
  2. Used game support will be severely impacted - another BIG downside for the console gaming market
  3. Always Online requirement - pretty damn big downside to the console gaming market, military, etc.
  4. No backwards compatibility

REFERENCES

 

 

XBOX 720 (aka "Durango")

 

REL: Holiday 2013

CPU: 4-6 core AMD processor (8-24 threads, most likely 16)

GPU: 2x HD7000 series ...or 1x 6670

 

Media: Blu-Ray

Storage: SSD?

Display: 4096x2160??? (not confirmed but if 2x HD7000s one would think)

 

Backwards Compatibility: NO

Always Online Requirement: YES

Supports Rental Games: Limited??? (need more details)

Supports Used Games: Limited (need more details)

 

SELLINGS POINTS

  1. Kinect built-in :rolleyes:
  2. Dual GPU (best selling point) - Not like SLI/CF, but allows each card to draw a different object at the same

 

IMMEDIATE DOWNSIDES

  1. Rental game support will probably be severly impacted - HUGE downside for the console gaming market
  2. Used game support will be severely impacted - another BIG downside for the console gaming market
  3. Always Online requirement - pretty damn big downside to the console gaming market, military, etc.
  4. No backwards compatibility

REFERENCES

 

 

Official names for both the next Playstation and XBox are not official at this time. Using the common place names the internet has taken up. As BP/OCC noted in his new articles many of the recent rumors are contradictory yet many coincide with other rumors.

 

So what are your thoughts:


  1.  
  2. If you game on both the PC as well as consoles, which one will get your money first?
  3. As a PC Gamer do you like specs released specifically so PC Games won't be held back as much by consoles?
  4. Since the PS4 is using a more common architecture do you think it corner the core gaming market like it did with PS1 / PS2?
  5. Do you think the lack of rental/used gaming support will force many consoles gamers into the PC Gaming market?
  6. Will the Wii U win this console war because of its support of used and rental games?
  7. Will the Wii U suffer the same fate the Wii did where it was almost completely isolated from 3rd party support AND multiplatform games?
  8. Will the ON-LINE ONLY requirement destroy the PS4 and XBox 720's chances of really taking off? If PC people hate it how it will it affect military members who deploy taking a console with them, or people who put their console in a spare bedroom ...or people who like to have more than 1 of the same console?

Edited by Fogel

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My predictions...

 

Most Hardware Sales: Wii U (for the You Know Who)

Most Software Sales: Wii U with 720 not far behind

Most Single Software Sales: 720, nevermind w/e game is bundled with Wii U or that Red Italian guy.

Most Exclusives: PS4 (based on PS3's list)

 

1. Depends if someone will split the costs. If not then whichever has better exclusives, PS4 most likely. If they go exclusive MGS, FF, Valkyria Chronicles, Demon's Souls/Dark Souls, and etc.

 

2. Meh, don't care as long as Devs can make large scale games well on them.

 

3. PSN would be a bigger factor to that than hardware. Sometimes being free, just doesn't cut it. That's why all my console gamer friends play on the 360.

 

4. Nope. Most console gamers I know, can't stand using a mouse.

 

5. A perk, but I say price point and You Know Who following.

 

6. Nope, if they include a regular controller.

 

7. Nope, most games being played on consoles are most likely MP games to begin with. You need internet to play online anyways.

Edited by AZNguyen

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My predictions...

 

Most Hardware Sales: Wii U (for the You Know Who)

Most Software Sales: Wii U with 720 not far behind

Most Single Software Sales: 720, nevermind w/e game is bundled with Wii U or that Red Italian guy.

Most Exclusives: PS4 (based on PS3's list)

I think you give the fat italian plumber too much credit.

look at the trend in last 3 generations of console sales.

 

5th Generation

Playstation 1 - 100 million. launch price: $299USD

N64 - 33 million. launch price: $199USD

 

6th Generation

PS2 - 150 million. launch price: $299USD

Xbox - 24 million. launch price: $299USD

Gamecube - 22 million. launch price: $199USD

 

7th Generation

Wii - 94 million. launch price: $249USD

Xbox 360 - 66million. launch price: $299USD / $399USD

PS3 - 62 million. launch price: $499USD / $599USD

figures from wikipedia

 

When you look at the N64 & Gamecube sales vs the Wii its hard to see nintendo replicating the Wii's success. Also i think the branding of Wii U instead of Wii 2 will confuse the less informed Mums & dads into thinking its the same thing. they'll think its just like the black & white Wiis. also i cant see many Wii owners being the type who are compelled to upgrade to the newest console. especially if new games are continued to be released on wii post launch.

 

I predict the Wii U will struggle with 3rd party dev support and that the success of the console will again rely heavily on 1st party titles (mario, zelda, etc)

 

  1. If you game on both the PC as well as consoles, which one will get your money first?
    it depends. better games / exclusives or cheapest. most likely ps4 though. if any
     
  2. As a PC Gamer do you like specs released so PC Games won't be held back as much by consoles?
    yes. hopefully with similar architecture / modern specs, optimisation will be eaiser (compared to ps3's cell processor), leading to easier and better quality ports.
     
  3. Since the PS4 is using a more common architecture do you think it corner the core gaming market like it did with PS1 / PS2?
    unsure. i think it will depend more on exclusive titles / launch price.
     
  4. Do you think the lack of rental/used gaming support will force many consoles gamers into the PC Gaming market?
    it is hard to say for certain, let alone be able to back it up with statistics. but i'd say very unlikely.
     
  5. Will the Wii U win this console war because of its support of used and rental games?
    unlikely see earlier comment about lightning striking twice with regards to wii console sales
     
  6. Will the Wii U suffer the same fate the Wii did where it was almost completely isolated from 3rd party support AND multiplatform games?
    yes. even more so when ps4 / nxt box release with higher specs.
     
  7. Will the ON-LINE ONLY requirement destroy the PS4 and XBox 720's chances of really taking off? If PC people hate it how it will it affect military members who deploy taking a console with them, or people who put their console in a spare bedroom ...or people who like to have more than 1 of the same console?
    hard to say. may be contributing factor to poor console sales in addition to no used games. depends on how ISPs respond. if they increase coverage / better pricing / data plans, most people shouldnt have a problem. as it stands today. could be a problem for a number of users.

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I think you give the fat italian plumber too much credit.

look at the trend in last 3 generations of console sales.

Wii Sports (76.76 million)

Mario Kart Wii (31.91 million)

Wii Sports Resort (29.87 million)

Wii Play (27.38 million)

New Super Mario Bros. Wii (25.47 million)

Wii Fit (22.61 million)

Wii Fit Plus (20.24 million)

 

Even the lowest one on that list beats any game released on the Xbox 360 and PS3.

 

Wii U 'not up to the same level' as PS3, Xbox 360 - Developers

 

That can't be good for trying to expand your player base. This console may just flop, or end up like CoD (name brand purchase). I still say parents will be all over this for the price. Parents are clueless :D

Edited by AZNguyen

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Wii U 'not up to the same level' as PS3, Xbox 360 - Developers

 

That can't be good for trying to expand your player base. This console may just flop, or end up like CoD (name brand purchase). I still say parents will be all over this for the price. Parents are clueless :D

I purposely did not include that article because the developer quoted in there sounded like a hater and was too chicken to be named. Devs from Ubi and Epic have already put their rep on the line to say the Wii U will be an advancement (no, I don't have an article to link at this time). The developer from Darksiders 2 (Vigil Games I believe) was less glowing saying it is advancement from the PS3 and 360 though not by much.

 

The GameCube was clearly the inferior system but anyone who played Metroid Prime will tell you it could easily compete with Xbox games ...and it wasn't developed by Nintendo but by Retro Studios. Sadly the GameCube failed to capture third party attention so it didn't have many games to showcase the great games devs could have created with it.

 

The only thing we can truly be sure on is that the Wii U will be the weakest of the 3 Next Gen consoles. Nintendo has gone on record to say it knows the Wii's technical limitations held the Wii back from Third Party Support as well as the core gaming crowd. So the chances of Nintendo releasing a "next gen console" weaker than its current competition is pretty slim. Though if true, Nintendo would definitely deserve the negative publicity it will get.

 

 


  1.  
  2. If you game on both the PC as well as consoles, which one will get your money first?
    I usually wait till there are at least 3 good games I really want to play before I purchase any console. So it depends on how long till those games come out. At first it was looking like PS4 was the sure thing, but now that the Xbox rumors are stating dual GPU cards that sounds pretty sweet. Though the one thing that the 360 lacks is true exclusives. While the PS3 rounded out at the bottom (if you go by sales figures) I think it had the best exclusives. The only exclusive I enjoyed on the 360 was the Gears series, which I am not sure if they will continue. The Wii U actually has a good chance if their cash cows look good and come at a decent time. Something tells me they will wait till Holiday 2013 to compete with Sony/MS which I think would be stupid ...best to get your fan base in as early as possible if you are releasing first.
     
  3. As a PC Gamer do you like specs released so PC Games won't be held back as much by consoles?
    Yes, especially the revised specs of the 720. I figured if anyone would change their specs at this point in the game it would be Microsoft so I have no problems believing the new rumors of the Dual GPU design. Sounds like Microsoft. If they beat you, thump them back twice as hard. Though I wonder how hard it will be for developers to code for the Dual GPU design. Even now SLI/CF scaling is just starting to take off as developers learn to code for it. The 720 design is more like when dual core CPUs came out though. Where each GPU can render something separatly than what the other GPU is working on. For awhile after dual core CPUs came out, a single core was still the best choice for gaming.
     
    While I don't think devs will have as hard of a time with the dual GPU like most did with PS3's cell architecture, I do think there is going to be a learning curve. But even despite that, if both the PS4 and 720 are using South Island AMD cards it will mean their core design won't hold PC gaming back for quite some time.
     
  4. Since the PS4 is using a more common architecture do you think it corner the core gaming market like it did with PS1 / PS2?
    There were two things keeping the PS3 from getting a big lead on the 360 - the cell architecture and its online service. The crazy cell architecture is what actually made many multiplat games better on the 360 since many devs didn't have the time to learn how to properly code for it. I hate to admit a service I pay for is better because I do have to pay for it - XBL wins and many XB fans are loyal to XB simply because of XBL. So if Sony also works on PSN, they have a good chance to dominate. Microsoft might went too crazy with the dual GPU idea, so PS4 has a chance to return the favor.
     
  5. Do you think the lack of rental/used gaming support will force many consoles gamers into the PC Gaming market?
    If you think about it, most PS3/360 gamers already have the mentality most PC Gamers do - most prefer "mature" and/or online games. If the keyboard/mouse interface is the only thing holding them back I think they would learn how to use the keyboard/mouse. I don't think there will be a mass exodus but I do see a few migrating to PC Gaming. The rental/used gaming market as well as the ability to loan/borrow games is what keeps a majority of the console gamers. Sure many complain about keyboard and mouse ...but if you piss them off they will learn. It's not like PCs are rare or anything.
     
  6. Will the Wii U win this console war because of its support of used and rental games?
    I should have put this question next to question #7 because I think the combination of this and the online requirement of the other consoles have a chance to make this one of the most interesting console wars to date. The biggest controversial design prior to this that I can think of is when the N64 decided to go cartidge when everyone else went CD. Granted once again Nintendo is the one bucking the trend but it favors them in this regard. This really could be one of the most interesting console generations to date.
     
  7. Will the Wii U suffer the same fate the Wii did where it was almost completely isolated from 3rd party support AND multiplatform games?
    I think it will fail on third party support and multiplatform games but not to the degree the Wii did. When the Wii released it was only marginally better than the GameCube. The Wii U will be completely superior compared to the Wii and the HD graphics of Zelda already look amazing. I don't quite believe the devs who are too chicken to be named saying the Wii U is worse than current gen, but I do think there will be a pretty large fricken gap between the Wii U and the PS4/720.
     
  8. Will the ON-LINE ONLY requirement destroy the PS4 and XBox 720's chances of really taking off? If PC people hate it how it will it affect military members who deploy taking a console with them, or people who put their console in a spare bedroom ...or people who like to have more than 1 of the same console?
    I think companies and many people fail to realize just how many people out there are still without internet in rural areas and in addition.. how many refuse to pay for it. It is just not a necessity for many. If you only talk to people on the internet then of course your viewpoint will be skewed. Also this would really be screwing over the deployed military. Always Online requirement is a bad idea no matter how much companies want to require it. I think there will be a pretty big backlash from fans over this.
     
    If the Wii U was more technically capable this generation I think it would have a really good chance of winning over a lot of core gamers because it would be sure to capture all the high profile multiplatform games like Batman, CoD, BF, etc.. If the Wii U can at least hang in there and still capture multiplat games, even if the graphics aren't as good, the Wii U has a good chance of winning the generation again. I don't think the tablet idea will win over people like motion gaming did, but being able to fully support Rental Games, Used Games and no online requirement would make up the difference.

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I dislike the no backwards compatibility thing, BUT we have to remember that it is a new thing.

 

Old school consoles didn't have it, you had to go and buy a hard to find (pre-internet) adapter to make them work, if one existed at all.

 

 

PS1 games worked on PS2 and initially PS2 and PS1 games worked on PS3, then they removed that function.

Only some Xbox games work on the Xbox 360.

Now Wii consoles don't support Gamecube games either as the new models do not have the memory card or controller ports.

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In this day and age, there doesn't need to be backwards compatibility support. Whoever wants to play an old-ass game probably already has the console and no point in reselling it for some money, as no one is going to buy it. Most of the time the game they want to play already has an emulator on it for the PC, or they created an android version of the game, or it will be in an "Arcade" version of the new console for something like $0.99.

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I hope the next xbox uses some type of card or cartridge system. I am pretty tired of discs. Also it would allow really fast loading times.

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Here is mine, I only buy used games or rent from gamefly for my Xbox 360 and Wii. If every console goes to this "no more used games" attitude then I will be 100% PC gaming from now on. I don't mind paying full price for my PC games, because I can get mods, edit the game (change my stats, people who play Mount and Blade know what I mean) and get patches easier, also higher res, multiple monitors and the ability to adjust my controls. With used games I will spend more on games then I paid for the console (at $50-60 a game, it is quite easy), which is not worth it for me.

 

 

Also the high failure rate of the Xbox does not make me excited for the xbox 720. :angry:

Edited by Black64

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